German haulage: lorries are running full, yet carriers' margins are shrinking
German freight indicators are rising, but carriers' expectations fell by 25.5% year on year. The ELVIS report explains where this paradox comes from.
At first glance, the indicators for the German transport market look promising: in March 2026 the number of toll-paying kilometres rose by 4.6%, and the transport barometer jumped by 7.2% in April. Even so, sentiment in the industry is clearly worsening.
What the ELVIS report shows
The latest report from ELVIS, the European network of international freight forwarders, points to three causes:
- The illusion of demand: full schedules and high fleet utilisation stem mainly from reduced competition after company bankruptcies and closures, not from any growth in the number of loads.
- An industrial crisis: the German economy grew by just 0.3% in the first quarter, while manufacturing output fell by 4.3%. Sectors such as chemicals, automotive and mechanical engineering are still feeling weak demand.
- A sharp rise in costs: in April 2026 diesel prices rose by 41.3% year on year and AdBlue costs by 25.5%, fuelled by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
'As long as costs rise faster than freight rates, margins will remain the key challenge.'
A year of protecting profitability
More expensive fuel is increasing interest in battery-electric lorries, but low profitability makes costly electrification investments hard for smaller firms. Nor is the influx of vehicles from Eastern Europe easing the shortage of fleet capacity any more. For many operators, 2026 will be a year of protecting profits rather than dynamic growth.
Are your companies also feeling such strong cost pressure on foreign markets?