ETS2 from 2028: higher fuel costs ahead for road hauliers

The EU's ETS2 system will cover road transport, among other sectors. The new obligations will fall on fuel distributors, but in the end it is hauliers who will pay for them through higher refuelling bills.

The European Union fears a price shock, so the European Parliament and the Council of the EU have provisionally agreed changes to the market stability reserve.

How Brussels wants to prevent sharp price rises

• A 45 euro ceiling: if the cost of a tonne of CO2 emissions exceeds this amount, 40 million additional allowances will be released from the reserve (instead of the standard 20 million).
• A 260 million threshold: when the number of allowances in circulation falls below this level, they will be released more cautiously and gradually.
• Longer duration: the emergency control mechanism is to remain in place after 2030 as well, to stabilise the market in the long term.
• Continuous reduction: the total pool of available allowances will be steadily reduced, which is meant to push companies to cut their emissions.

What happens next with the agreement

For now, these rules are only a provisional agreement. They still have to undergo legal and linguistic review and be formally approved by the EU institutions. The amended stability reserve is due to take effect before the system launches in full.

Will these EU 'safety valves' protect the transport industry from a sharp rise in fuel prices? What are your forecasts?